NWS Winter Storm Warning (Avery County)

Current Conditions
Beech Mtn

Temp: 27.4°F

Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, March 6, 2014 at 7:24PM

Trouble Brewing

The road to spring has lots of ups and downs. We'll experience a little weather motion sickness in the next 36 hours (nice Wednesday, cooler Thursday, wintry tonight). Precipitation has begun for many across the High Country this evening in the form of sleet and snow and will continue overnight. The wintry mix then gradually changes to rain Friday morning. Accumulations will depend on how long the precipitation type remains snow, but I raised the Snowman-O-Mometer to "Moderate" for the level of problems produced regardless of precipitation type. The complication for precipitation type is a relatively warm layer from the Atlantic later tonight around 6000'.

Thursday Hi: 33 Lo: 25 Cloudy; Snow (mixed with sleet at times); East wind 5-15 mph (gusty tonight up top)

Friday Hi: 33 Lo: 27 Cloudy; AM wintry mix or snow ending by the afternoon as light rain; NE wind 5-15 mph (gusty at times) becoming NW at night

Saturday Hi: 48 Lo: 31 Partly cloudy with more clouds at night; Surprisingly nice; NW wind 5-15 mph becoming West at night

Sunday Hi: 42 Lo: 31 AM clouds; PM partly cloudy; Seasonal temperatures

Monday Hi: 49 Lo: 36 Scattered clouds; Very nice!

Further Out

Tuesday - Clouds increase late; Pleasant temperatures; Chance for light rain late Tues. night; High in the lower 50s; Low in the upper 30s
Wednesday - Cloudy; Light rain; Turning colder at night with rain possibly ending as light snow; High in the mid 40s; Low in the mid 20s

Forecast Discussion

A potent upper-level low moves from Mississippi this evening to near Wilmington NC late Friday. Accompanying the upper-level low is a surface low developing off the Southeast US coast. Another key player is high pressure centered in New England wedging down into the Appalachians. It's the perfect set-up for a big March snowstorm; however, a relatively warm layer of air will be drawn into the system from the Atlantic later tonight on a strong easterly flow.

This is a "down to the wire" situation regarding details. Precipitation is quickly advancing north this evening with many reports of sleet and snow coming in across western NC (even outside of the higher elevations). Across NW NC, we expect mostly snow and sleet to continue into early Friday morning before beginning to transition to freezing rain and then rain as milder air works in aloft. In this scenario, we get 2"-5". However, if precipitation rates and dynamic cooling can fight off that warm layer just enough to keep temperatures at 6000' near freezing, we would see more snow, possibly much more snow.

Saturday will be surprisingly pleasant with milder high pressure in control. A weak front will add clouds Sunday morning and cool temperatures to seasonal levels. Monday and Tuesday will be even milder--very nice!

But yet again, we have to say "winter is not over". The next front arrives Wednesday with light rain possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Colder air returns Wednesday and rain may end as a brief period of light snow. Next Thursday looks chilly.

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