Forecast Last Updated at Friday, July 3, 2009 at 8:47PM

Cool for July

It was a cool day for a July 3--upper 50s on the mountains for high temperatures. The brisk NW wind finally began to die down late this afternoon. Saturday looks nice with warmer temperatures; however, humidity will increase steadily, and a thundershower will be possible later Saturday night (firework shows should be safe). Sunday looks like an "indoor day"--clouds, seasonably cool, showers and thundershowers. Showers and thundershowers will continue into Monday. Tuesday through the middle of next week will be drier and gradually warmer.

Friday Hi: 68 Lo: 47 Partly cloudy; Seasonably cool; NW wind 5-15 mph but gusty at higher elev's

Saturday Hi: 76 Lo: 60 Partly cloudy day, mostly cloudy night; T-showers possible at night, especially after midnight; Wind becoming SW 5-15 mph

Sunday Hi: 73 Lo: 61 Cloudy; Showers & t-showers; West wind 5-15 mph (except 10-20 mph & gusty at higher elev's)

Monday Hi: 76 Lo: 57 Mostly cloudy; Scattered daytime showers & t-showers

Tuesday Hi: 77 Lo: 54 Partly cloudy; Pleasant

Further Out

Wednesday - More sun than clouds; Pleasant; High in the upper 70s; Low in the upper 50s
Thursday - Scattered clouds; Warmer & more humid but mostly nice; High near 80 degrees; Low in the lower 60s

Forecast Discussion

The upper-level low (responsible for our cooler than normal temperatures, clouds, and isolated showers for the past three days) that has been over the Great Lakes is sliding to the ENE. It will be in Maine by late Saturday. A stationary front has been over the Eastern NC, across SC/GA/AL/MS, and then to OK virtually all week and remains there. Saturday, low pressure on the west end of that front will develop and move east lifting the front to the north. This low will move toward the Mid-Atlantic by Monday, and by Tuesday the front will resume its familiar position to our south and east.

Today was a cool day for July 3 with a brisk NW breeze. Winds will diminish tonight with seasonably chilly temperatures.

Saturday will be a bit warmer and humidity will steadily increase through the day. Clouds will increase late. It appears that thundershowers will hold off until later Saturday night.

Sunday looks "yuck"... a technical meteorological term meaning "cloudy with showers and thundershowers". Have books, indoor activities, or shopping plans after church Sunday. Showers and thundershowers may continue into Monday--scattered coverage during the daytime hours.

Tuesday through Thursday will bring drier weather and gradually warmer temperatures.

Announcements

Summer Rain Forecasts

I'm asked often about wording for summer shower and thundershower coverage. If we think no one in the region will see rain, we will not mention it in the forecast. If we think only single, renegade thundershower is possible (less than 20% coverage area), we'll generally leave it out of the forecast but mention in the discussion section (or possibility use language like "slightest chance", "stray", or "renegade"). If we think around 20 percent of the region will see rain on a given day, we'll include in the forecast box and use language like "slight chance", "isolated", or "small chance", etc. Widely scattered" indicates coverage of about 25 percent. "Scattered" generally means 30%-50% coverage. When about 50 percent of the region is expected to see rain, we'll use phrases like "good chance". When rain chances are in the 60-70 percent realm, a "likely" qualifier used, and above that, we don't use any particular qualification and just say "showers or thunderstorms". We generally do not use "percent chance of precipitation" in our forecasts--rather we try to focus on when, where, and how much. Isn't that what you really want to know? However, specificity like this in summer forecasts is very difficult. Last Wednesday, we had stations picking up 2" of rain on the same day when others only 20 miles away saw virtually no rain. Forecasting those kinds of specifics is impossible. Finally, words like "storm" (instead of "shower"), "severe", or "strong" indicate greater intensity of an event that may include heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, or hail.

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