Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, October 3, 2015 at 8:08PM
Hunker Down Day
Rain was the weather story today, heavy at times. Some minor stream flooding was reported, but the more severe damage for many in the region is the economic damage caused by taking out one of the largest tourism weekends of the year.
The rain today would not have been a significant flooding threat without the preceding 8 soggy days. Fortunately, the worst is behind us tonight in terms of rainfall as the relentless steady stream becomes lighter and more intermittent. Additionally some gusty winds will continue overnight, especially at higher elevations. Similarly, these winds would be nothing extraordinary for us except for the fact that trees are anchored now in very soggy soil increasing the risk that some fill fall.
Showers hang around Sunday, primarily in the morning hours. Even Monday we're not totally in the clear.
Tuesday, finally!, will be dry and dry weather will dominate the rest of this week.
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Hi: 61 Lo: 55
Cloudy with fog; Rain (not as heavy); NE wind 10-20 mph, gusty especially at higher elev's
Hi: 59 Lo: 53
Cloudy; Showers (less in the afternoon); NE wind 10-20 mph, gusty
Hi: 61 Lo: 47
Mostly cloudy; Showers linger through the daytime; NE wind 5-15 mph, gusty early, becoming light Mon. night
Hi: 68 Lo: 47
Mostly to partly sunny; Unloading the animals from ark delayed until today, getting mighty stinky
Hi: 69 Lo: 48
Partly sunny; Won't know what to do with 2 dry days in a row
Thursday - Continued dry and pleasant; High in the mid 60s; Low in the upper 40s
Friday - Partly cloudy; Slightest chance of an afternoon shower; High in the upper 60s; Low near 50 degrees
High pressure is centered in Eastern Canada and wedging down the east side of the Appalachians producing much cooler weather today. That wedge gradually breaks down tonight and Sunday.
Hurricane Joaquin is a Category 4 storm finally headed north from the Bahamas. It will continue a northerly track well east of the Atlantic Seaboard.
An upper-level lowis over South Georgia sliding slowly east. It will spawn a secondary surface low near Charleston.
A cold front is along the Southeast Coast being shoved west slightly by the strong flow produced by Joaquin and the upper-level low.
As the high pressure wedged along the Appalachians, we we're blanketed in cloud cover with cool temperatures. Interaction between the upper-level low and Hurricane Joaquin has produced the long-awaited conduit of moisture from the Atlantic directly into the Southern Appalachians through the Carolinas. 2"-4" of rain covers most of our region by late Saturday night. Areas west of the NC/TN line only picked up an inch or two.
Winds are complicated. The cool wedge actually acts to protect us from most of the wind (strong winds ride right over the surface wedge). As the wedge erodes, gusty winds may work down to lower elevations. Regardless, these are not severe by our standards. The problem really is that leaf-laden trees in soggy soil are more likely to fall. Thus the problem.
Finally Tuesday, Joaquin and the upper-level low will be far enough to our east and north allowing sunshine to return. Tuesday through Thursday look partly to mostly sunny with pleasant temperatures. A weak front gets close enough for me to mention the slight chance of a shower late Friday.
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