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NWS Special Weather Statement (Avery County)

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Elk River East , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 7:58AM

Messy Weekend (Sorry!)

We have a messy weekend ahead. Saturday starts with clouds and patchy fog. Rain develops around noon or soon thereafter. Then "periods of rain" is our weather through Monday. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through Sunday night. The heaviest rain comes Sunday night. Even thunder is possible Sunday. Colder air wraps in Monday. Precipitation might even end as wet snowflakes at higher elevations late Monday.

The 2017 Daniel Boone Rail Jam gets underway this evening in Boone at the historical Daniel Boone Park. Heading that way? Check out the hour-by-hour forecast for the event.

Saturday

Hi: 57 Lo: 42

Cloudy with patchy fog; Rain developing around noon or early afternoon; Mild temperatures; Light South wind but breezy at highest elev's tonight
Sunday

Hi: 57 Lo: 41

Cloudy; Periods of rain, heavy at times; Thunder possible; Mild daytime, cooler late Sun. night; South wind 5-15 mph, gusty at times
Monday

Hi: 48 Lo: 35

Generally cloudy; AM rain; PM showers; Precipitation could mix with snowflakes at higher elevations Mon. night; Turning cooler; NW wind 10-20 mph, gusts to 40 mph
Tuesday

Hi: 48 Lo: 35

Maybe some early light rain or high elevation flurries; Decreasing clouds; Windy
Wednesday

Hi: 58 Lo: 35

Increasing PM clouds; Pleasant temperatures; Cannot rule out a stray nighttime shower

Further Out

Thursday - Lots of clouds; Turning colder; Spotty light rain possible early; Snow showers or flurries late; High near 40 degrees; Low in the lower 20s
Friday - Mostly cloudy; Snow showers or flurries possible; Much colder; High in the lower 30s; Low in the upper teens

Forecast Discussion

Some thing cannot be changed; they just have to be endured. Our weather through Monday fits into that category. There's no "spin" I can put on this one that will make it go away.

A complex storm system is moving from the Southern Plains into the Southeast this weekend. Rain will come in 3-4 distinct waves, but I won't try to get too cute with timing each wave. Here's the basic sequence... 1) A first disturbance moves through this evening with rain developing around or just after noon, 2) Number two arrives early Sunday. 3) The primary surface low moves through late Sunday night. 4) Once the center of the complex system gets to our northeast, wrap-around moisture from the NW kicks in Monday. The bottom line is periods of rain this afternoon through Monday. Even thunder is possible Sunday.

For added "excitement", colder air wraps into the system Monday. As rain tapers to showers late Monday, precipitation could mix with snowflakes at higher elevations Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Finally, add windy conditions to your mental picture of this event for Monday and Tuesday.

Clouds will decrease Tuesday as the system exits northeast. As the center of mild high pressure moves east across the Gulf, we'll have a rapid warmup Wednesday--one very pleasant day.

Not to be ignored... A cold front from the west moves through Wednesday night delivering arctic air back into the Eastern U. S. I cannot rule out a stray shower Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Then with colder temperatures snow showers or flurries are possible late Thursday and Friday.

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