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NWS Winter Storm Warning (Avery County)

NWS Winter Weather Advisory (Avery County)

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Elk River East , NC

Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, November 26, 2014 at 7:07AM

Wetter Train; Colder Caboose

We have seen some wild predictions floating around. Temperatures will make this morning's snow very elevation dependent. We're "holding the line" on forecast accumulations (there's been some really outrageous stuff floating around social media, please learn to ignore that mindless forecast chatter).
Higher elevations (above 4000') have a couple inches of snow at sunrise, but most of the region is just now changing over the snow. Temperatures remain marginal inhibiting accumulations. The first round of precipitation will be over by noon. Precipitation is playing "catch me if you can" (colder air arriving while moisture is exiting). The changeover to snow will result in 1'-4" of snow for most (mostly on grassy/exposed surfaces). There will be less below 2800'; more above 4000'.
After a break for about 10-12 hours, a trailing clipper-type low will spread another 1"-2" of snow across the region (maybe 3" on mountaintops). The caboose-snow arrives around midnight tonight with snow showers and flurries lingering through much of Thanksgiving Day. I'll have a new forecast snow totals map out shortly; it will look a lot like the one posted yesterday.

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Wednesday

Hi: 37 Lo: 25

Cloudy; Snow up top, rain changing to snow below 4000', ending by noon; Snow showers redevelop after midnight tonight; Light wind becoming NW 5-15 mph
Thursday

Hi: 32 Lo: 19

Mostly to partly cloudy; Daytime snow showers & flurries; Colder; NW wind 5-15 mph, gusty
Friday

Hi: 37 Lo: 22

Mostly sunny; Cold; NW wind 5-15 mph, gusty early, diminishing in the PM
Saturday

Hi: 46 Lo: 30

Scattered clouds; Cool
Sunday

Hi: 55 Lo: 39

Partly cloudy; Seasonally pleasant

Further Out

Monday - Increasing clouds; Chance of rain showers late; High near 60 degrees; Low in the lower 40s
Tuesday - Cloudy; Cooler; Cannot rule out a shower or two; High in the upper 40s; Low in the mid 30s

Forecast Discussion

Bottom line on the current event... The coastal low tracked farther west. It's located near Wilmington at sunrise and will hug the coast all the way into New England and Nova Scotia through tomorrow. That west drift allowed more precipitation into our region; however, it prevented cold air from arriving in time to make a big snow event for most of the Southern Appalachians.

But there will be some "winners"... Above 4000' rain changed to snow by 4AM today, and many locations had a couple inches on the ground by sunrise. You'll hear of mountaintop accumulation reaching the inflated, silly chatter forecast totals. But for most of the region, we'll only have light accumulations this morning: 1-4 generally, less below 2800' and more above 4000'. It will all be over by noon (by 10AM south of Boone). We may even see the sun pop out this afternoon briefly and many locations below 4000' will melt all all the snow.

Then comes the caboose... A clipper low races out of the Northern Plains today. It will pass through the Southern Appalachians early Thursday morning. It will be colder and all snow. Snow and snow showers develop after midnight tonight; then expect snow showers and flurries for much of Thanksgiving Day. Most of the region will pick up another 1"-2", less right along the Blue Ridge, a tad more on western mountaintops.

Friday through noon Monday, high pressure will be in control as it moves from the Western Great Lakes southeast across our region. Temperatures will be cold Friday, then gradually moderate Saturday through Monday.

The next front arrives Monday evening with the chance of a rain shower or two late Monday and Monday night. Tuesday, high pressure to our north wedges down the Appalachians producing clouds, cooler temperatures, and the slight chance for a rain shower.

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