Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, May 24, 2018 at 6:04PM

A Shower Possible

A subtle front moved through Wednesday evening introducing cooler and more stable air to the region. Showers are relegated to the "isolated" category through this afternoon. However, an easterly upslope flow targets showers along the Blue Ridge escarpment this evening so I expect a little enhanced coverage over those ridges. The rainy reprieve begins to diminish Friday and Saturday with a gradual uptick in afternoon showers. In terms of weekend planning the morning and early afternoon hours are your safer bet for outdoor fun.

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Thursday Hi: 68 Lo: 55 Partly cloudy; Widely scattered evening and early nighttime showers; East wind 5-10 mph

Friday Hi: 72 Lo: 57 Partly sunny; Widely scattered PM showers & t-showers; Light SE wind

Saturday Hi: 73 Lo: 58 Intervals of sunshine & clouds; Scattered mostly PM t-showers; South wind 5-15 mph

Sunday Hi: 73 Lo: 57 Partly to mostly cloudy; Scattered afternoon & nighttime showers & t-showers

Monday Hi: 72 Lo: 57 Mostly cloudy; Scattered showers & t-showers

Further Out

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy; Scattered showers & t-showers; High in the lower 70s; Low in the upper 50s
Wednesday - Generally cloudy; Scattered showers & t-showers; High in the lower 70s; Low in the upper 50s

Forecast Discussion

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes managed to force a weak frontal boundary through the southern Appalachians yesterday. The result is for a mostly dry afternoon today, despite ample cloud cover, until a few showers develop along the Blue Ridge this evening and may linger into the early nighttime hours. The high shifts east tomorrow allowing for the return of modestly higher moisture levels in the form of widely scattered PM showers and thundershowers.

On paper the forecast looks about the same each day beginning Saturday and persisting through much of next week. It also looks the same as the last couple of weeks. This time the culprit is a tropical low that moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and then over the Deep South early next week. The low will direct copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the region manifesting into numerous showers through the foreseeable future. As it stands now, we'll be on the northern fringe of the rain until the low potentially passes overhead Thursday or Friday of next week.

That means there's some wiggle room to experience "not as much" rain as our neighbors in the southwestern mountains. We won't hang our hat on that idea just yet but we wont' complain if it happens. The takeaway is for mostly afternoon and evening showers Saturday and Sunday. Thereafter, anytime during the day becomes fair game. Somewhere in there I expect a rainy overnight or two, but it's too early to pinpoint exactly which nights.

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