Flash Flood Watch - Avery (North Carolina)

Current Conditions
Sugar Mtn

Temp: 63.2°F

Forecast Last Updated at Wednesday, August 27, 2008 at 8:03PM

Shower Chance Continues Into Thursday; Drying Trend Ahead

The heaviest rains exited our area early this morning (see the discussion section for details on amounts so far). Rain tonight will continue to be more of a showery nature--not the tropical downpours we saw Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Showers will diminish Thursday morning to just a slight chance by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will hold nearly steady again tonight. Thursday and Friday will be a bit warmer once the sun reappears. For the holiday weekend, we can expect just the slight chance of an afternoon thundershower and temperatures near normal. Labor Day looks dry and pleasant.

Voting in the 2009 Ray's Weather Center Calendar Photo Contest ended August 20. Winners will be announced by September 1.

Wednesday Hi: 67 Lo: 60 A evening t-shower possible near the TN border; Cloudy overnight with a continued chance of showers; Areas of drizzle/fog; SE wind 5-15 mph

Thursday Hi: 68 Lo: 58 Mostly cloudy; Morning showers, maybe lingering into the afternoon; SE wind 5-10 mph becoming light at night

Friday Hi: 72 Lo: 58 Partly cloudy; Warmer; Slight chance of a PM t-shower; SE wind 5-10 mph becoming light at night

Saturday Hi: 72 Lo: 56 Partly to mostly cloudy; Slight chance a PM t-shower

Sunday Hi: 72 Lo: 56 Mix of clouds & sun; Slight chance of a PM t-shower

Further Out

Monday - Partly cloudy; Pleasant; High in the lower 70s; Low in the mid 50s
Tuesday - More sun than clouds; Pleasant; High in the lower 70s; Low in the mid 50s

Forecast Discussion

Moisture associated with "the storm formerly known as Fay" has delivered the goods. 48 hour rain totals range from 7"-8" in spots right along the Blue Ridge, 3"-5" across most of the mountain region, and about 2" right along the TN/NC line.

The heaviest rains exited to the NE early this morning. Showers redeveloped today but were not nearly as heavy as yesterday. Fay's remnants will move north from northeast TN into eastern KY tonight but loses definition Thursday. Shower chances will continue into Thursday morning and then diminish through the afternoon and evening.

The next front from the NW will move through here Saturday with little if any noticeable effect. We have to leave the slight chance for an afternoon thundershower Friday through Sunday; however, drier air will filter into the Southern Appalachians early next week. Monday and Tuesday look dry. High temperatures Friday through Tuesday will range from normal to slightly above normal.

While Fay is finishing her trek across the southeast, there's more developing in the tropics. Gustav has continued to weaken somewhat but is forecast to regain hurricane strength as it moves west between Cuba and Jamaica. Gustav will continue west, just south of Cuba, and be in the Gulf Saturday night. It has the potential to be a major hurricane by that time. The eventual landfall threat in the US appears to be in Louisiana or Texas. But there's more business in the Atlantic... A tropical wave NE of the Leeward Islands has a good chance to strengthen into a named system and be NE of the Bahamas by the weekend with some potential to impact the East Coast. Another tropical wave is way out in the Atlantic and is worth watching, but any effects from this wave will be 10-14 days away.

Sugar Mountain Resort Activities

Join us this summer.

Summer scenic lift rides every weekend beginning Friday, July 4th through Sunday, August 31st.

Mark your calendar for Sugar's 18th annual Oktoberfest Saturday & Sunday, October 11-12, 2008. Just a plain "ole" good time for the whole family! www.skisugar.com/Oktoberfest. Handmade arts and crafts vendors now being accepted.

Hiking and biking trails intertwine throughout the Village of Sugar Mountain. Trail access is free of charge May through October during daylight hours. Trail maps are located in a black, marked mailbox at the base of the Flying Mile slope. Trails are constantly being maintained so please be cautious. Also keep in mind that weather and other variables can change the condition of any trail. While riding a bike within the Village limits helmets are required.

Announcements

RaysWeather.Com continues to grow. We are an "information age" company using the web to broadcast the message but also as a tool for producing the message. RaysWeather.Com (what we call RWC) has evolved from "Ray's hobby in Beautiful Downtown Rutherwood" in 1999 to the most widely read media outlet in NW NC reaching 150,000 to 200,000 people per month and covering the weather from NC/VA line to Asheville and Wolf Laurel. We will continue to grow geographically as well--Roaring Gap and Waynesville were recently added; Black Mountain will be up and running very soon. The heart of the growth is good data, "local flavor", and THE most reliable forecast.

We recently added our 6th forecaster to the best forecast team ever assembled for this region. It's time for us to introduce "the crew"...

• Dr. Ray Russell is a Computer Science professor at Appalachian State University. His PhD is in Computer Science from Georgia Tech (1989); weather has been a long-time passion. He started posting a "snow forecast" on the university website back in the mid 1990's; this evolved into RaysWeather.Com in 2000. Ray lives in Boone and has taught at Appalachian State since 1991.
• Eric Anderson (RWC's Chief Meteorologist) received his degree in meteorology from the University of North Carolina at Asheville, and is a 15-year veteran of NOAA with experience in forecasting, observation and analysis. A native of western North Carolina, Eric's former tenure in the National Weather Service gave him the opportunity to forecast for areas of the Mid-Atlantic region. His professional interests include upslope flow snow events in the southern Appalachians, as well as cold air damming in the Carolinas.
• Alan Simons, born in Fayetteville NC, has a Bachelor of Science in meteorology and almost 20 years of professional experience that includes forecasting for newspapers, websites, radio, aviation, and the military. He first became interested in weather in North Carolina, and RWC takes him back home after a variety of duty stations, from New York to Hawaii. Alan's been with the RWC team since 2003.
• Tim Kirby joined Ray's Weather Center in October 2004 and lives in his hometown of Fries, VA (pronounced Freeze). The folks from this small Grayson County town say "it's freeze in winter and fries in summer". He has a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology from NC State University. While at NC State, he was president of the NCSU Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society. Before joining RWC, Tim worked for the National Weather Service for ten years in Raleigh, Chattanooga and Morristown, Tennessee. Tim has always loved the challenge of forecasting and owes his dedication to a childhood fascination of snow (no school!).
• Harold Alston is a N.C. native with Bachelor of Science degrees from both App State (Broadcast Communications) and UNC-Asheville (Meteorology). He has 30 years experience tracking and forecasting NC weather including 15 years experience for media outlets. Nailing down Appalachian wedges & wintry possibilities are his areas of expertise with a lifetime of N.C. weather experiences to reference.
• Jeff Cox, a native of Asheville, is the latest addition to the RWC team. He earned a Bachelor of Sciences in Atmospheric Sciences from UNC-Asheville. At UNC-A, he was the lead forecaster for the school's Weather Forecast Line, campus Radio Station, "The Blue Echo" and the campus newspaper, "The Blue Banner." Jeff has experience as a meteorologist in both television and radio. He spent over 2 years in Macon, GA, as the chief meteorologist at WGXA FOX-24. He also has experience as a radio broadcast meteorologist for The Weather Channel in Atlanta, Georgia.