Forecast Last Updated at Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 6:59PM

Fantastic Friday Forecast

Friday will have fewer clouds and less wind than Thursday--just about perfect for outdoor activities! For the Fourth... Humidity will be on the increase, and correspondingly the chance for thundershowers will gradually increase through the afternoon and overnight. As usual, fireworks shows will have to keep an eye on the radar. Sunday and Monday will have even greater coverage of showers and thundershowers.

Thursday Hi: 63 Lo: 53 Partly to mostly cloudy; Slight chance for a t-shower; WNW wind 5-15 mph but gusty at higher elev's

Friday Hi: 66 Lo: 54 Fewer clouds; Pleasant; NW wind 5-15 mph

Saturday Hi: 67 Lo: 55 Partly cloudy; An afternoon t-shower possible, better chance overnight; NW wind 5-15 mph

Sunday Hi: 65 Lo: 58 Mostly cloudy; Showers & t-showers

Monday Hi: 66 Lo: 58 Mostly cloudy; Mostly daytime showers & t-showers

Further Out

Tuesday - Partly cloudy; Slight chance of a PM t-shower; High in the mid 60s; Low in the upper 50s
Wednesday - Partly cloudy; Pleasant; High in the upper 60s; Low in the mid 50s

Forecast Discussion

Our weather continues to be dominated by an upper-level low in the Great Lakes. However, through the weekend, this feature will drift ENE, to Maine by late Saturday. Weak disturbances will rotate around this low in a brisk NW flow. A stalled front is located from New York to eastern NC, to SC, then across the central Gulf Coast states to Texas. Over the weekend, the front will lift north in response to low pressure moving into the Tennessee River Valley and east toward the Mid-Atlantic. By Monday night, this low will be to our east, once again driving the front to our south by Tuesday.

Friday looks dry and pleasant with less wind.

The Fourth looks mostly pleasant; however, thundershower chances gradually increase through the afternoon and overnight. You'll also feel more humidity in the air. This is typical for the Fourth of July in our area, natural fireworks will be possible along with the fireworks we light. Check out our Daily Climate Report for July 4.... it rains 40%-50% July 4th have some rain.

Late Saturday night, Sunday, and the daytime Monday have the best chances for rain in this forecast. Skies will be mostly cloudy. It will not rain the entire time; however, a shower or thundershower will be possible at any time.

As the front slides back to our south and east, thundershower coverage will diminish Monday night. Tuesday looks much drier, but it's too early to pull the plug on all thundershower chances. Wednesday looks dry and pleasant.

Announcements

Summer Rain Forecasts

I'm asked often about wording for summer shower and thundershower coverage. If we think no one in the region will see rain, we will not mention it in the forecast. If we think only single, renegade thundershower is possible (less than 20% coverage area), we'll generally leave it out of the forecast but mention in the discussion section (or possibility use language like "slightest chance", "stray", or "renegade"). If we think around 20 percent of the region will see rain on a given day, we'll include in the forecast box and use language like "slight chance", "isolated", or "small chance", etc. Widely scattered" indicates coverage of about 25 percent. "Scattered" generally means 30%-50% coverage. When about 50 percent of the region is expected to see rain, we'll use phrases like "good chance". When rain chances are in the 60-70 percent realm, a "likely" qualifier used, and above that, we don't use any particular qualification and just say "showers or thunderstorms". We generally do not use "percent chance of precipitation" in our forecasts--rather we try to focus on when, where, and how much. Isn't that what you really want to know? However, specificity like this in summer forecasts is very difficult. Last Wednesday, we had stations picking up 2" of rain on the same day when others only 20 miles away saw virtually no rain. Forecasting those kinds of specifics is impossible. Finally, words like "storm" (instead of "shower"), "severe", or "strong" indicate greater intensity of an event that may include heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds, or hail.

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